Wall Street Know-It-AllWall Street Know-It-All
A fresh, new blog written by an actual Wall Street stockbroker. It's filled with stock tips, humor and pathos. You won't be disappointed!
The dollar is gaining strength against the EURO on the belief that the feds will not cut interest rates again, plus the ECB will start to cut rates soon. This shift is causing all the irrational investors that thought that gold would protect their money against inflation to either sell out of gold or lose their recent profits.Other commodities such as oil are also beginning to back off their record highs. It seems like all the irrational investors are now starting to pick up financials that are at record lows, ironically. I will repeat myself again, invest in tech and solar. If you are feeling extra aggressive, look towards an up and coming pharmaceutical, such as Callisto. I have been dabbling in the real estate market lately, hence the lack of posts.
More About: Market , Insight
Are Politicians the Scum of Scum?
I think so. Our political environment has become so corrupted and futile, that the debates have turned into a third grade playground fight. I am really tired of this bullshit. First, there's Barack and his eloquent way of speaking, but then his preacher for 20 years has casted a dark cloud of bottled up racism. Then there's Hillary and the false assumption that she implies Bill. I thought she was smart enough to actually present herself as a potential presidential candidate, but she is too caught up in the 3rd grade playground fight with Barack.And on the other side of the ring is John. Good 'ol John. The war veteran, that was also a POW, which seems to encompass the all American presidential candidate. However, he lost to little bush TWICE, and he is 72 years old - not to discriminate because of age, but come on... he is applying to be the President of the United States. I think we can and should be picky as voters.Lastly, you cannot forget Ralph. The guy that took the blame for...
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There's Nowhere But Up From Here
The markets have bottomed out folks. Time to get off the sidelines and back into the market. The way the Feds reacted to the potential collapse of BSC has infused confidence back into the markets. The dollar has also rebounded. Expect volatilty to still remain, especially in the financials; but, expect great returns by getting in now and holding on for the next year or so. As I have said before, look into techs and alternative energy, such as solar.
I just wanted to check in with all my readers - sorry, I have been very busy lately and I have not been able to post. I plan on posting again this Friday and also picking up the pace of my posts thereafter. I have a made a few good trades that I am excited to share, and also some keen market insight. Sorry again for the recent lapse of posts.
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A tip for all the daytraders.
Do yourself a favor, trade only a couple of stocks. Do not constantly move from stock to stock, trying to find a winner. Trade only what you know. If you stick to one or two stocks that you follow everyday, and are disciplined in your strategy, you will come out ahead. Trust me.
More About: Daytraders
Sometimes, you just have to go with your gut.
It seems like my recent trades, which analytically appeared sound, have been turning out losers. After my most recent blunder with General Mills (GIS), I decided to trade like I used to trade - on instinct, rather than over analyzation. The stock market can be very irrational, and you have to adapt.I ended up buying Guess (GES) Mar08 $35 calls on Tuesday, just before their earnings were going to come out after the bell. I had a feeling their earnings would be good. They were reporting their 4th quarter earnings, which includes holiday sales. Also, the retail numbers lately have actually been good. The chart looked like I had some room on the upside, so I bought the calls for around a buck, when GES was trading around $34.The earnings came out good, and I breathed a sigh of relief. However, to my dismay, the market sold off the next day because everyone wanted to capture their profits. GES went down with it. I hung in there, and today (the last trading day before expiration), GES pul...
Goodbye, Bear Stearns.
I believe this past week will be remembered for a very long time. The question that remains on most peoples' minds is, "how could a relatively small number of defaults on mortgages cause such a financial crisis?" The answer is simply, risk. With greater risk comes greater returns. However, most people never truly contemplate the potential results of risk when times are good, especially when it comes to home prices. Home prices have historicaly never really come down - they steadily go up. It seemed like a win win deal. Without going into too much detail, home prices did go down, and the percentage of foreclosures and defaults doubled (still, a relatively small number compared to good loans). Bear Stearns happened to be a big time player in the mortgage securities business. They were extremely leveraged, and you know the rest. A true Wall Street icon is now no longer. Goodbye , Bear Stearns.It was reported in the New York Times that "James E. Cayne, Bear Stearns’s former chief exec...
Stock Tip of the Week!
Here is a trade I am thinking about, and I think it may be worth your while to pay attention. General Mills (GIS) is reporting their third quarter earnings on Wednesday 3/19, at 8:30AM ET. Wheat has been reaching record high prices, and grain costs make up about 22% of GIS' total cost of goods. You do the math. A JPMorgan analyst recenly commented, "rising U.S. grain prices this year are expected to hurt cereal makers, like General Mills." In a Jan. 30 conference call, the chief executive of Kellogg, A. D. David Mackay, said, “everyone is feeling these inflationary pressures,” and General Mills cited rising ingredient costs when it increased cereal prices last June.GIS has also had a nice run up lately, currently at $57.14, thanks to the dividend increase on 3/10, and the Fed intervention on 3/11. Look for the stock to come down a bit in the next couple of days, so try and catch the $55 Put while it is still out of the money - so you can buy it for dirt cheap. This stock should...
More About: Stock , Week
The State of the Market
As you know, the markets are very volatile right now, to say the least. Most investors, retail and yes, institutional, are hanging on every word every analyst says; each have their finger on the trigger, ready to sell at any slight movement or news story. Normally, when investors are rational and they are not acting on emotion, bad news will come out and investors let it roll right off their shoulders, because they trust the markets and the stocks they are in. Rational investors believe the bad news will only create a temporary slide, at most, and they are usually right- their stocks come right back up.Now, somebody whispers a bad rumor and everybody is selling. And then everybody else is selling for no other reason than because they heard someone else is selling. Fear is a self-fulfilling prophecy.The DOW has virtually fallen through it's support level at 12K (it also fell lower intra day on 1/22/08). The reason I say virtually is because there was a strong bullish push at the end...
More About: Market , State , The State
The Tech Renaissance
There is something stirring in the tech world, again. There are many recent articles hinting towards a “tech renaissance,” and the term “web 2.0,” seems to be gaining popularity. However, the rumors or whispers are still confined to the savvy tech communities and Wall Street. Maybe you have heard of the social platforms such as Myspace, or Youtube, but you have probably just blown them off as websites for kids. In case you aren’t aware, Myspace was purchased by media mogul, Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp in 2005 for $580 million.If you are unsure as to what Web 2.0 is, Tim O'Reilly sums it up best: “Web 2.0 is the business revolution in the computer industry caused by the move to the internet as platform, and an attempt to understand the rules for success on that new platform." O'Reilly refers to this also as "harnessing collective intelligence." He goes on to say, "[i]t was Web 1.5, the dotcom bubble, in which people tried to make the web into something else, that fough...
More About: Tech , Renaissance
The blood bath today worked out perfect for me, and I hope all you savvy investors out there took advantage of it. I got in on some JAVA Mar08 $18 calls for dirt cheap @ .14; although, they did drop down to .10 by the end of the day. This stock is only a few days away from being over $18, but I have 3 long weeks left if it doesn't. What a great day it was to go bargain hunting, especially in the techs. The rumors are rampant in techs right now, and it is only a matter of time before the NASDAQ explodes upward. Oh, and just wait for the commodity bubble to finally burst... all that money will come flowing right back into stocks, especialy the techs!
More About: Bargain , Hunting
Trades On My Radar
I think the Prince of Wall Street's most recent post, "Buy When There's Blood in the Streets," sums up the current market pretty well. The market is finally starting to stabalize a bit, and there are some really great bargains out there. The stocks I have been following for a little while now are AAPL, JAVA, and GOOG. I believe these stocks have been beaten down enough and there is a lot of upside potential.AAPL has found some support and is starting its trend back up. They are expected to blow away their next earnings. Also, the rumors of a stock split are out again, and AAPL is having a meeting next week... I am looking at the Mar 140 calls.GOOG has recently fallen through support, but it climbed right back up. I think now is the time that GOOG will begin its trek back up, and GOOG definitely has a lot of upside potential. I might look into the Mar 540 calls tomorrow.JAVA has a lot of deals and good products out there, and I think it is time the stock will start moving up. I thi...
More About: Radar
With oil closing at a record high of over $100 dollars a barrel and global warming coming into the forefront, many people are now wondering about alternative energy solutions, such as solar power, aka Photovoltaics (PV). This may seem like a new crises, however, similar energy crises have happened before. According to research, "[t]he 1973 oil and 1979 energy crises provided a further impetus to PV development. When oil prices began to fall in the early 1980s the growth of PV was slowed. In the context of historically-low oil prices from 1986-1999, funding for PV research was relatively low and the issue was not high in public consciousness."So, it seems that when oil prices rise to record levels, solar power is pushed to the forefront. I believe now is the time to start looking into solar stocks such as HOKU, JASO, ESLR, and FSLR. Now might be the time when oil prices never come back down and the emphasis is pushed towards solar energy for good. Solar stocks could make you a millio...
More About: Stocks
The Results Are In
Well, it seems that the majority of my readers would like more posts about trading techniques. You asked, and you shall receive. I have put together a trading guide that contains everything you need to know about trading stocks, condensed into three simple steps. Think of it as a cheat sheet to trading stocks. Check it out at StockSkool.com. I have also placed a link on the sidebar. Coming in a close second, was post more about my trades. I will definitely oblige to this request as well. I have already written about a few of my trades, and I intend to write a lot more. A distant third, was for me to write more posts. I intend to do this also; I will be posting daily very soon. Thanks for your participation and look for more opportunities for feedback in the future.
More About: Results
Wall Street Blogs
Now that I have started my own Wall Street blog, I did a little research about how Wall Street blogs are perceived by the public. I came across this article that stated, "[b]ack in the 1980s and 1990s, a Bloomberg terminal or subscriptions to news services could give you a jump on the hoi polloi. Today, it's the masses that often have the jump, thanks to blogs and other tipster sites."So, it seems that maybe Wall Street blogs are actually useful. I have checked out most other top Wall Street blogs and have been unimpressed. They are filled with gibberish, and links to the same artilces you could find on your own at any of the Wall Street websites such as CNNMoney.com. I hope to create a blog that is a fresh change from the monotonous dribble that most other blogs seem to spew. That said, I would like to ask you, the reader, what you want from a Wall Street blog. If you want trading techniques then I can create something and add a link. If you want more about the trades I place, the...
More About: Blogs
Expiration Friday: it only comes around once a month!
You win some, you lose some. I went all out this morning... I bought several hundred HOKU Feb 08 $10 calls for $.10 when HOKU was trading in the $9.90's. The markets seemed to have bottomed out for the day after the bad NY manufacuring and bad UM consumer sentiment reports. I thought that the reports weren't that bad because the national manufacturing report came out just a few weeks ago and beat the consensus. The NY manufacturing just covers NY and most manufactures have left to go out West. I thought the markets would rally towards the end of the day and that HOKU would follow. I also thought that since HOKU didn't go up as much as the other solars on Wednesday when FSLR crushed their earnings, that it had some room to go up. I was expecting HOKU would rise to around $10.25-$10.50 by the end of the day. However, HOKU finished below $10 and I lost my investment. That's the risk I was willing to take on Expiration Friday because the reward can oulast the risk I believe, if you...
More About: Month
Cisco came out with their earings last fall and met expectations, however, they lowered their guidance going forward. The stock was in the mid 30's last fall, and after the news they dropped to around 30. In the following months CSCO continued to drop with the market. They got down to the mid to low 20's when their new earnings were about to come out for the next quarter. I knew that they weren't going to surprise with any good news because every other tech was a disappointment to the market. The day when CSCO was reporting their earnings after hours, I bought the Feb08 22.5 puts for around 40 cents. When I bought them CSCO was up close to 24, which placed my puts around a dollar fifty out of the money and there was only a week and a half left until expiration. By the end of the day I had doubled my money because CSCO droped to around the high 22's, even before their earnings came out.The earnings came out after hours and met expectations but continuted to hint towards lower sal...
More About: Earnings
My First Post
It is currently around 11 pm on a Fri night. I got home from work a couple hours ago, had a few beers and then became bored. I started this website about 2 weeks ago but have been skeptical about writing. But tonight, I thought fuck it, why not. So, here goes... my attempt at writing about my experiences as being a stockbroker for a prestigious Wall Street firm.First off, let me explain what kind of stockbroker I am. I do not sell stocks. I do not get paid with commissions. I get paid salary for answering my clients' questions and conversing about the stock market; and yes, I am a licensed stockbroker. The difference between me and the stereotypical stockbroker is that I know how to trade and I know how the market works. The rest just know how to sell. I know this because I have to answer my firm's financial advisors "stockbrokers'" questions daily.I am going to begin my blog with some words from the classic Steve Dunleavy from the New York Post : "I can't write well when I drink...
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